How Great is Pedro Martinez?
Conor Nicholl
A couple of recent stories have emerged on ESPN.com and MLB.com about Pedro Martinez. He recently won his 200th game, and the debate swirls around a few questions: Is he the best Dominican pitcher ever? Is he the best pitcher of the 20 years? And is he the best pitcher ever? And, one story even raised another question: Just how good was his 2000 season?
Using Efficiency Ratings, these are my answers: Yes after last season, Yes and no, Yes and no, and the best ever by far.
From the top: One of the articles on ESPN.com discussed whether or not Pedro is the best hurler from his own country, or more specifically, is he better than the high-kicking Giants right-hander of the 1960s, Juan Marichal? In my opinion, Marichal is one of the top 10-20 pitchers of all-time and easily the best from the Dominican.
Pedro is ahead of him in a lot of rate stats (i.e. ERA, WHIP, Hits/9 innings, K/9, SO/BB) but Marichal has a huge advantage is wins (244-200) and is more than 900 innings ahead of Pedro.
This seems like a case of apples and oranges- win shares seem to be the other stat that could work here, but even that would be a little tough because of the advent of the modern closer, wins per team and a variety of other factors.
I don’t want to discount win shares because it is a great stat, but it also is very confusing to calculate. We also can’t use wins because they are calculated based upon run support and other factors. We want to focus on what the pitcher does.
I used Eff. Ratings which can combine rate stats (mentioned above) and counting stats (specifically innings pitched) into one number. (Note: Eff. Rating is defined as [(SO/BB)]/[(H/IP+(HR/H)])
Here’s Pedro and Marichal’s career number:
Pedro: 4.99
Marichal: 3.25
This seems like a huge difference - and it is. Since 1917, Sandy Koufax has the highest career Eff. Rating of all-time at 3.37 among retired pitchers. Only three pitchers today have a Rating above Koufax’s mark (min. 1000 IP) - Pedro, Schilling, and Randy Johnson. Pedro is by far and away the best.
So, in essence, the Eff. Rating measures what someone does in a single game setting - for every game Pedro pitches, he averages a 4.99 Rating. Since this is the highest rating all-time, we can say that Pedro Martinez is the greatest one-game pitcher of all-time. Not just of the Dominican – of all-time.
The second quandary lies in taking Marichal’s career IP (3507.3) and aligning with Pedro’s (2532.3) and then factoring this number into the per game Efficiency. This is an important distinction to make because the innings gap is significant between pitchers of different eras.
We calculate this by: IP/9. Marichal pitched 389.7 games and Pedro, through his last start, has tossed 281.4. This seems like a major difference but there was already a sizable gap in the per game Eff. Rating.
Then, we multiply Eff. Rating x (IP/9). Entering the 2005 season, the two pitchers were literally neck and neck.
Pedro: 1281
Marichal: 1265
But after Martinez’s terrific 2005 season (16-8 record, 125 Eff. Rating points), Pedro is clearly better than Marichal in both the per game arena and the career points arena.
Pedro: 1406
Marichal: 1256
We can use the same calculations to quantify his performance in the last 20 years and in the Greatest of All-Time annuals. In the past 20 years, this the short list of pitchers who have a sure ticket to Cooperstown and their per game Eff. Ratings.
Player Per Game
Pedro 4.99
Schilling 4.25
Johnson 3.61
Maddux 3.37
Mussina 3.29
Clemens 3.16
Smoltz 3.03
Glavine 1.76
If a manager needed a starter for one game, there really isn’t any contest. Pedro is the best pitcher around of the last 20 years in a one-game setting. But it’s a different story for a career setting. Martinez has long been a fragile pitcher who usually doesn’t make more than 30 starts in the season. He also won’t throw 230-240 innings like some other pitchers.
The career numbers are a little different:
Player Career
Maddux 1660
Clemens 1653
Johnson 1448
Martinez 1406
Schilling 1383
Mussina 1107
Smoltz 993
Glavine 747
For a 20-year career, Martinez doesn’t match up to Maddux, the Rocket and the Big Unit. I would still rank him fourth on the career list. When he retires, he may pass Johnson but is unlikely to catch Maddux and Clemens, especially with Maddux still pitching at the top of his game at the age of 40.
On my list, Maddux and Clemens rank as the fourth and fifth best pitchers of all-time in the career column behind Walter Johnson, Cy Young and Christy Mathewson. Johnson leads the pack with 2003 points.
For Martinez, I would rank him the greatest one-game pitcher of all-time (by far) but would be in my top 10-15 among pitchers for their entire career.
For one season, Martinez’s 2000 season ranks as the greatest of all-time and his 1999 season ranks second. In fact, since the modern ERA began in 1901, only four seasons in major league history has the season Eff. Rating been over 9 (min. 200 IP)- Pedro in 1999, 2000, Curt Schilling in 2002 and Walter Johnson in 1913.
These are top four seasons:
Pitcher Year Eff. Rating
Pedro 2000 12.28
Pedro 1999 10.49
Schilling 2002 9.83
The Big Train 1913 9.02
And for the total innings pitched:
Pitcher Year Eff. For Total Innings
The Big Train 1913 347
Pedro 2000 296
Schilling 2002 283
Pedro 1999 249
The individual seasons resemble the career numbers - if you want a pitcher for one game, the best choice is Pedro. For a career or a lot of innings, he still ranks very high, but he is not No. 1.
A couple of recent stories have emerged on ESPN.com and MLB.com about Pedro Martinez. He recently won his 200th game, and the debate swirls around a few questions: Is he the best Dominican pitcher ever? Is he the best pitcher of the 20 years? And is he the best pitcher ever? And, one story even raised another question: Just how good was his 2000 season?
Using Efficiency Ratings, these are my answers: Yes after last season, Yes and no, Yes and no, and the best ever by far.
From the top: One of the articles on ESPN.com discussed whether or not Pedro is the best hurler from his own country, or more specifically, is he better than the high-kicking Giants right-hander of the 1960s, Juan Marichal? In my opinion, Marichal is one of the top 10-20 pitchers of all-time and easily the best from the Dominican.
Pedro is ahead of him in a lot of rate stats (i.e. ERA, WHIP, Hits/9 innings, K/9, SO/BB) but Marichal has a huge advantage is wins (244-200) and is more than 900 innings ahead of Pedro.
This seems like a case of apples and oranges- win shares seem to be the other stat that could work here, but even that would be a little tough because of the advent of the modern closer, wins per team and a variety of other factors.
I don’t want to discount win shares because it is a great stat, but it also is very confusing to calculate. We also can’t use wins because they are calculated based upon run support and other factors. We want to focus on what the pitcher does.
I used Eff. Ratings which can combine rate stats (mentioned above) and counting stats (specifically innings pitched) into one number. (Note: Eff. Rating is defined as [(SO/BB)]/[(H/IP+(HR/H)])
Here’s Pedro and Marichal’s career number:
Pedro: 4.99
Marichal: 3.25
This seems like a huge difference - and it is. Since 1917, Sandy Koufax has the highest career Eff. Rating of all-time at 3.37 among retired pitchers. Only three pitchers today have a Rating above Koufax’s mark (min. 1000 IP) - Pedro, Schilling, and Randy Johnson. Pedro is by far and away the best.
So, in essence, the Eff. Rating measures what someone does in a single game setting - for every game Pedro pitches, he averages a 4.99 Rating. Since this is the highest rating all-time, we can say that Pedro Martinez is the greatest one-game pitcher of all-time. Not just of the Dominican – of all-time.
The second quandary lies in taking Marichal’s career IP (3507.3) and aligning with Pedro’s (2532.3) and then factoring this number into the per game Efficiency. This is an important distinction to make because the innings gap is significant between pitchers of different eras.
We calculate this by: IP/9. Marichal pitched 389.7 games and Pedro, through his last start, has tossed 281.4. This seems like a major difference but there was already a sizable gap in the per game Eff. Rating.
Then, we multiply Eff. Rating x (IP/9). Entering the 2005 season, the two pitchers were literally neck and neck.
Pedro: 1281
Marichal: 1265
But after Martinez’s terrific 2005 season (16-8 record, 125 Eff. Rating points), Pedro is clearly better than Marichal in both the per game arena and the career points arena.
Pedro: 1406
Marichal: 1256
We can use the same calculations to quantify his performance in the last 20 years and in the Greatest of All-Time annuals. In the past 20 years, this the short list of pitchers who have a sure ticket to Cooperstown and their per game Eff. Ratings.
Player Per Game
Pedro 4.99
Schilling 4.25
Johnson 3.61
Maddux 3.37
Mussina 3.29
Clemens 3.16
Smoltz 3.03
Glavine 1.76
If a manager needed a starter for one game, there really isn’t any contest. Pedro is the best pitcher around of the last 20 years in a one-game setting. But it’s a different story for a career setting. Martinez has long been a fragile pitcher who usually doesn’t make more than 30 starts in the season. He also won’t throw 230-240 innings like some other pitchers.
The career numbers are a little different:
Player Career
Maddux 1660
Clemens 1653
Johnson 1448
Martinez 1406
Schilling 1383
Mussina 1107
Smoltz 993
Glavine 747
For a 20-year career, Martinez doesn’t match up to Maddux, the Rocket and the Big Unit. I would still rank him fourth on the career list. When he retires, he may pass Johnson but is unlikely to catch Maddux and Clemens, especially with Maddux still pitching at the top of his game at the age of 40.
On my list, Maddux and Clemens rank as the fourth and fifth best pitchers of all-time in the career column behind Walter Johnson, Cy Young and Christy Mathewson. Johnson leads the pack with 2003 points.
For Martinez, I would rank him the greatest one-game pitcher of all-time (by far) but would be in my top 10-15 among pitchers for their entire career.
For one season, Martinez’s 2000 season ranks as the greatest of all-time and his 1999 season ranks second. In fact, since the modern ERA began in 1901, only four seasons in major league history has the season Eff. Rating been over 9 (min. 200 IP)- Pedro in 1999, 2000, Curt Schilling in 2002 and Walter Johnson in 1913.
These are top four seasons:
Pitcher Year Eff. Rating
Pedro 2000 12.28
Pedro 1999 10.49
Schilling 2002 9.83
The Big Train 1913 9.02
And for the total innings pitched:
Pitcher Year Eff. For Total Innings
The Big Train 1913 347
Pedro 2000 296
Schilling 2002 283
Pedro 1999 249
The individual seasons resemble the career numbers - if you want a pitcher for one game, the best choice is Pedro. For a career or a lot of innings, he still ranks very high, but he is not No. 1.
posted by Anonymous at Wednesday, April 19, 2006
2 Comments:
You know, I could understand some Cubs/Cardinals talk by you guys, but this makes absolutely no sense on this campus.
This blog really hasn't turned into what I thought it would (or displayed in the fall/winter).
Please keep up the good work in the actual paper.
i agree. this blog in the fall was much MUCH better. for one, the last few posts were simply articles that weren't published in the paper. where are all of the opinions? what does pedro martinez have to do with any of us (unless we're mets fans)?
as the reader before me suggests, bring on the cubs and cards debate! heck, feel free to throw in the royals as well (though I could possibly see what one's argument could be). there's so much you all can do with this blog ... i'd hate to see it go to waste.
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