Wednesday, March 22, 2006

Sweet 16: How Sweet It Really Is

By John Scognamiglio

On the eve of the most wide-open Sweet 16 in recent memory, and since my bracket already lost two Final Four teams, this weekend should be filled with many more bracket busting games.

Thursday evening in the Atlanta region, Duke opens up the night against LSU. The key to this matchup is the fight in the paint between Shelden Williams and Glen "Big Baby" Davis. Even though this is the ninth straight Sweet 16 game for Duke, their eyes are on getting to the Final Four and possibly a national championship. That being said, they cannot overlook a dominant LSU team. My prediction is that "Big Baby" will become the new "Landlord" in college basketball after Davis dominates Williams early, getting the Duke senior into foul trouble, but J.J. Redick will have the last laugh as he goes for thirty-plus points in the Blue Devils Sweet 16 win. Even if Williams gets into foul trouble, we have yet to see the best Duke's freshman forward Josh McRoberts has. So it very well may be that McRoberts will be the key to the win over the Tigers.

In the other Atlanta semifinal, West Virginia faces Texas. Both teams are drastically different than when the two matched up earlier in the season. In that semifinal matchup from the Guardians Classic all the way back in November, LaMarcus Aldridge made the game-winning layup and blocked a last second shot as Texas escaped with a 76-75 win. With John Beilein and Co. looking to get back to the Elite Eight, I think the Mountaineers have the advantage against the Longhorns, but don't be surprised if this game goes into extra periods. Aldridge and Daniel Gibson definitely need to bring their "A" games into this matchup, and with Texas dismantling North Carolina State in the Round of 32, it's possible that Texas may escape with another dramatic win. What do I think will happen? Based on what has transpired so far, this game is definitely my sleeper for game of the Sweet 16 and the Mountaineers will triumph, setting up a classic Duke vs. West Virginia regional final.


The best regional in terms of probably play and frenzied fan support will be the Oakland Regional. Game one of this region features one of this year's Cinderellas, Bradley University from the much-maligned now validated Missouri Valley Conference, against the Memphis Tigers of Conference USA. While it is easy to say this is just a matchup between a one seed against a thirteen seed, I think Bradley will give Memphis fits. Why? Because Bradley has one of the few potent 1-2 punches with Marcus Sommerville and Patrick O'Bryant. The pundits are saying about this matchup that Memphis is just too athletic and quick for Bradley. Well, Bradley has already taken down Kansas and Pittsburgh, and O'Bryant has already shown that he is not only strong in the post, but smart too, as evidenced by the game against Aaron Gray and Pittsburgh. However, I think Memphis will win this game, but kudos to Coach Les and the Bradley Braves for making it this far and validating the Missouri Valley Conference.

The game of the Sweet 16 is in the Oakland Region. Gonzaga. UCLA. Past dynasty meets current mid-major dynasty. UCLA came out of the first round as probably the most dangerous team in the region by destroying Belmont. However, the second round game versus Alabama showed college basketball nation that UCLA is not without flaws. Free throw shooting will be a must for UCLA in this game, especially after Gonzaga only allowed Indiana to shoot six free throws against them. If Alabama showed the free throw flaw of UCLA, then Indiana showed how to shut down Adam Morrison. All year long, I believed that Adam Morrison and Gonzaga were just a one-man show. As the season progressed, I changed my opinion that Gonzaga's fate was in the hands of both Morrison and J.P. Batista. Saturday's game against Indiana highlighted what I needed to see to say Gonzaga is a Final Four contender. I needed to see the Bulldogs' role players come up big when Morrison has an off night. They did and that is why I believe that Gonzaga will not only take down UCLA, but defeat Memphis in the Oakland Region final.

Friday night's action in Washington, D.C. begins with a matchup that if no one can smile about it, then they really do not appreciate the greatness that is March Madness. Seventh seeded Wichita State takes on eleventh seeded George Mason in what is being dubbed by some as a mid-major Super Bowl. My hope is that no matter who wins this game, Billy Packer and Jim Nantz are forced by CBS to call it. There would be no greater glee in my life Friday evening then hearing the two people who lambasted Greg Littlepage and the selection committee over the involvement of mid-major teams being forced to call a game in which, gasp, a mid-major is forced to go the Elite Eight.

I've been a fan of the Shockers all season long especially the play of senior center Paul Miller. He has just been a dominant force in the paint, and he is one of the reasons why the Missouri Valley Conference regular season champions are still in the Big Dance. George Mason on the other hand has been the giant killers of the tournament, no offense to Bradley. What have the Patriots done? Oh nothing, except eliminate two members of last year's Final Four, including the defending national champion North Carolina Tar Heels. The return of Tony Skinn has been a great boost to the Patriots, even though the defeated Michigan State without him. I will not choose a winner in this game because when two mid-majors hook up this late with a spot in the Elite Eight on the line, everyone is a winner. Oh all right, my heart still lies in the Missouri Valley, so I say the Shockers will win. Happy now?

They might as well call the nightcap in Washington, D.C. the "Duel in the Dog Pound." I will go out on a limb and say the Huskies will win this game. Not buying it since the game is Connecticut versus Washington? Darn. Brandon Roy has really emerged as one of the premier players of the tournament with his play in taking down Utah State and Illinois en route to the matchup. Plus, I still feel good with Lorenzo Romar, the former St. Louis University Billikens head coach. However, U Conn has one of the more impressive lineups in the field if they can maintain a level of dominance befitting their No. 1 seed. Rudy Gay, Rashad Anderson, Marcus Williams, Denham Brown, Josh Boone? It's a scary lineup no matter how you look at it.

The win over Kentucky showed the Connecticut Huskies are vulnerable but I think Coach Calhoun will use that game as fuel to light fires inside of Gay and Co. and U Conn will pounce on Washington, setting up the final of U Conn versus Wichita State.

The last region is the Minneapolis region which features three Big East schools and one from the SEC. Well, Boston College is in the ACC now, but for as long as I live, BC will always be in its heart a Big East school. Villanova versus Boston College is going to be a game that features two entirely different schools of offense. Villanova has their four-guard offense, while BC relies on the interior presence of Craig Smith and Jared Dudley. Will Sheridan will definitely have his hands full in the paint. In the all-time record books, Villanova holds the edge over Boston College with regards to wins.

If it were guards versus guards, Villanova wins. Forwards against forwards, Boston College has the edge. When it's five-on-five, I think Villanova's four guard offense will be too much for Coach Skinner's Boston College team and the Wildcats advance to the Elite Eight.

If you asked me before the tournament began, which team would be the most impressive after the first weekend I would never have said Florida. I have never seen as complete a player in the tournament as Florida's Joakim Noah. He scores, assists, grabs rebounds, gets steals, gets blocks. He has to be the player of the first two rounds. Their reward for getting to the Sweet 16: facing Georgetown and the new John Thompson. Could Georgetown be returning to the time of the glory years when they flourished with Thompson's father and had dominant centers that ran roughshod over the Big East? Well, Roy Hibbert looks pretty comfortable in his 7'2 frame being the next great Georgetown center, but you have to look at the box score of the Georgetown -Ohio State contest. Seven Hoyas played, and only four scored points. That is either good or bad depending on your viewpoint.

The good thing is that the anyone on the Hoyas can hang 20-plus on an opponent and when four Hoyas are in double digits in scoring, they are downright nasty. The flip side of the argument is if one of the Hoyas has an off night, does Georgetown have role players that could easily slip in and fill the void. G'Town is definitely not afraid of any big-name programs; they were the first team to knock Duke from the undefeateds. Like the Duke-LSU matchup, it's going to be a war in the paint between Noah and Hibbert, and in a war, I have to go with the complete package and say Florida will knock of Georgetown.

So recapping, Duke and West Virginia will meet in Atlanta. Memphis will lose to Gonzaga in Oakland. U Conn will meet Wichita State in Washington, D.C. Boston College will meet Florida in Minneapolis. All eight of these teams have the potential to moving onto Indianapolis and possibly winning a national championship.

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