Thursday: Editor's Predictions
*Conor Nicholl*
First Day Picks: First Two Matches
It’s November Madness. Across the country, the field of 64 gets underway at eight different regional locations. Day 1 is a crucial day as the Div. II bracket is pared in half.
Unlike past seasons, I don’t think the South Central Regional is as strong as it has been, but I do believe that it is the third toughest region in the country behind the incredibly difficult Pacific Region (all eight teams are ranked in the top 30 in the latest AVCA poll) and the topsy-turvy Great Lakes Region. Still, as reported in today’s Index, I believe Truman is far stronger than any team in the South Central.
Four teams, though – Central Missouri, Washburn, Pittsburg State and North Alabama – have plenty of talent will provide incredible first round action. The South Central also presents several wild cards in the No. 6-7 seeds in Missouri Southern and West Florida, respectively. This could be one bracket that could see the lower seeds winning two, or perhaps three, of the first round games.
The Day 1 picks for the South Central Region:
No. 6 Missouri Southern vs. No. 3 Central Missouri.
UCM 3-1
Two MIAA teams face off for the third time this season.
Southern has enjoyed plenty of rest since the MIAA Conference tournament concluded and believes they can upset the Jennies by using their best player Tessa Woods (MIAA-leading .361 percentage) early and often.
However, I think it will take a lot more than Woods to win. Peggy Martin simply has too many weapons at her disposal, especially L Katie Tarka, the conference leader in digs/game and arguably the best libero in the country. Central has a tendency to crumble when they fall behind and looked terrible against Washburn in the MIAA Conference tourney, but the Jennies rarely play two bad matches in a row.
Next to Truman, this is the best defensive team in the region and generally doesn’t make mistakes in the playoffs.
Southern is also in a terrible tailspin, going 4-9 in their last 13 matches. They have been swept the only two times they faced the Jennies, including hitting a season-low .056 in the conference tourney. In the first defeat of the year to UCM, Southern hit just .135 and Woods attacked under .250.
Even if Woods has a terrific performance, I can’t see her hitting above .300, especially with Jillian Ohrman providing staunch blocking support and Tarka patrolling the back line. Neither team may not be playing very well right now, but Central knows how to win defensive-minded games better than the Lions.
Overall, the Jennies don’t have a very strong offense either, so expect them to earn a lot of points of blocks and long rallies. They cover the floor very well and won’t make many mistakes. Their team defense is very strong and the main reason why they have a legitimate shot of making it to Saturday.
The Lions should be commended for a terrific season, but the Mules win the first set, gain confidence, and win in four.
No. 7 West Florida vs. No. 2 Washburn
Washburn wins 3-2.
This is probably the most interesting 2-7 matchup in the country, next to the Pacific’s 2-7 of UC-San Diego and Western Washington – two teams that have spent nearly the entire season in the national rankings.
West Florida knocked off the Lady Blues 3-1 on Oct. 10 in the Henderson State (Ark.) tournament. Washburn head coach Chris Herron said the loss “was the one bad match every team can point to every year. We just didn’t do anything right.”
The Lady Blues had problems with their serves and serve-receive the entire contest. They finished with 12 service errors. Discounting the first two matches of the year, it was the worst total by the Lady Blues on the season. Washburn also committed seven reception errors, one of their highest totals on the year.
The offense wasn’t very strong and the defense had to rely too much on L Erica Cowhick – as good as Tarka on the backline and one dig away from breaking the Lady Blues’ all-time dig record.
In short, it was a dismal performance. It’s unlikely to happen a second time. Washburn is falling apart at the edges and has been slowly collapsing since Monica Meisner went down in early fall practice and was eventually redshirted. The team has been hit by a rash of injuries and has looked, at times, very bad this season.
There may also be some tension between Tessa Jones, the team’s best offensive threat, and head coach Chris Herron. Jones appeared frustrated during a huddle during the middle of one of the MIAA matches and walked away. She is also nursing an injury and hasn’t fully played to her capabilities this season.
It’s a perfect upset in the making. I think West Fla. will provide a strong match – similar to what underdog Lock Haven did to favorite C.S-LA in the Elite Eight last season – but they just don’t have the team defense to keep up with the Lady Blues for five sets.
Lock Haven could rely on terrific blocking and the unbelievable play of Yizhi Li, but West Florida doesn’t have the same lineup or star. By the way- West Florida does have a terrific player blog about traveling to Missouri from Pensacola. It’s written somewhat like an instant message, but it’s at least interesting to read: http://goargos.cstv.com/sports/w-volley/spec-rel/110706aab.html.
Anyway, Naiara Fernandes is the Argonauts’ best player, earning All-Region second team honors and averaging 4.64 kills/game. Still, she is hitting .221 – not a strong average for your best player. WFU doesn’t have a single hitter that hits over .260, a big problem against the Washburn defense that has had a close match against Truman this season. Overall, I believe the offenses and blocking are about the same, though a slight edge could go to the Argonauts in the blocking department.
Still, Washburn has the much, much better libero and shouldn’t serve or receive as poorly as they did. If they do – and Truman took advantage of that in the MIAA Tourney – expect West Florida to pull the upset, but Washburn, led by their team defense and overall experience in big games and big matches wins in five.
No. 4 North Alabama vs. No. 5 Pittsburg State
As Tyler Madsen likes to say, “Flip a coin.” Two years ago, this match has produced the second-closest match I have ever witnessed – the first was the Lock Haven- C.S.-L.A. match mentioned above. This year will yield more of the same.
Sammie Williams, the MIAA reigning Freshman of the Year is sidelined with an undisclosed injury, but according to one MIAA head coach’s report early this week, is likely to play. If she plays, Pitt’s offense improves tremendously.
UNA could use a spy or shadow technique against either Williams or Pitt’s best blocker, Linda Igbinigie, but it’s unlikely to stop Pitt’s front line. Pamela Cartegana is likely the conference’s second-best all-around player behind the Bulldogs’ Sarah Shearman and could put up a huge match.
UNA doesn’t block very well and is led by S Laura Bellinger, the South Central Regional Player of the Year. Next to the Bulldogs, UNA has the best offense and one of the best team defenses, but their front line isn’t as athletic as the Gorillas. If Williams plays, Pitt’s the winner in five. If she doesn’t, UNA will earn the offensive advantage, close the blocking advantage and will take it in five.
No. 1 Truman State vs. No. 8 Albany State Truman 3-0
This is a match that’s similar to a No. 1 playing a No. 16 in the NCAA Tournament. Except this time, it’s remiscient of the mid-90s matchup between powerhouse UCLA (26-2) and Florida International (11-18). Albany State is the only team in the tournament with a losing record. They should receive plenty of congratulations for earning another NCAA Tournament bid in what was supposed to be a down year for them, but they rebounded from a subpar regular season and won the conference tourney.
Albany State does block very well, but that strength is negated against Truman, one of the best blocking teams in the country. MH Dana Hanselmann, a starter at the beginning of the season, will likely see plenty of time. Allie Cherven (MIAA-best 1.46 blocks/game) and Lisa Weber have taken over the middle spots, but Hanselmann is still plenty capable.
“We have three middles that we can move in and out,” sophomore outside hitter Eli Medina said.
Hanselmann, who hit a solid .280 and averaged just under a block a game (0.99) could enjoy a fine performance against ASU.
It’s likely head coach Jason Skoch will rest many of his key players for most of the match, including OH and MIAA regular season MVP Sarah Shearman. Overall, several players – include solid backup L Erin Leavitt and S/DS Amanda Holliday – could also see time in a three-game sweep at Pershing Arena.
First Day Picks: First Two Matches
It’s November Madness. Across the country, the field of 64 gets underway at eight different regional locations. Day 1 is a crucial day as the Div. II bracket is pared in half.
Unlike past seasons, I don’t think the South Central Regional is as strong as it has been, but I do believe that it is the third toughest region in the country behind the incredibly difficult Pacific Region (all eight teams are ranked in the top 30 in the latest AVCA poll) and the topsy-turvy Great Lakes Region. Still, as reported in today’s Index, I believe Truman is far stronger than any team in the South Central.
Four teams, though – Central Missouri, Washburn, Pittsburg State and North Alabama – have plenty of talent will provide incredible first round action. The South Central also presents several wild cards in the No. 6-7 seeds in Missouri Southern and West Florida, respectively. This could be one bracket that could see the lower seeds winning two, or perhaps three, of the first round games.
The Day 1 picks for the South Central Region:
No. 6 Missouri Southern vs. No. 3 Central Missouri.
UCM 3-1
Two MIAA teams face off for the third time this season.
Southern has enjoyed plenty of rest since the MIAA Conference tournament concluded and believes they can upset the Jennies by using their best player Tessa Woods (MIAA-leading .361 percentage) early and often.
However, I think it will take a lot more than Woods to win. Peggy Martin simply has too many weapons at her disposal, especially L Katie Tarka, the conference leader in digs/game and arguably the best libero in the country. Central has a tendency to crumble when they fall behind and looked terrible against Washburn in the MIAA Conference tourney, but the Jennies rarely play two bad matches in a row.
Next to Truman, this is the best defensive team in the region and generally doesn’t make mistakes in the playoffs.
Southern is also in a terrible tailspin, going 4-9 in their last 13 matches. They have been swept the only two times they faced the Jennies, including hitting a season-low .056 in the conference tourney. In the first defeat of the year to UCM, Southern hit just .135 and Woods attacked under .250.
Even if Woods has a terrific performance, I can’t see her hitting above .300, especially with Jillian Ohrman providing staunch blocking support and Tarka patrolling the back line. Neither team may not be playing very well right now, but Central knows how to win defensive-minded games better than the Lions.
Overall, the Jennies don’t have a very strong offense either, so expect them to earn a lot of points of blocks and long rallies. They cover the floor very well and won’t make many mistakes. Their team defense is very strong and the main reason why they have a legitimate shot of making it to Saturday.
The Lions should be commended for a terrific season, but the Mules win the first set, gain confidence, and win in four.
No. 7 West Florida vs. No. 2 Washburn
Washburn wins 3-2.
This is probably the most interesting 2-7 matchup in the country, next to the Pacific’s 2-7 of UC-San Diego and Western Washington – two teams that have spent nearly the entire season in the national rankings.
West Florida knocked off the Lady Blues 3-1 on Oct. 10 in the Henderson State (Ark.) tournament. Washburn head coach Chris Herron said the loss “was the one bad match every team can point to every year. We just didn’t do anything right.”
The Lady Blues had problems with their serves and serve-receive the entire contest. They finished with 12 service errors. Discounting the first two matches of the year, it was the worst total by the Lady Blues on the season. Washburn also committed seven reception errors, one of their highest totals on the year.
The offense wasn’t very strong and the defense had to rely too much on L Erica Cowhick – as good as Tarka on the backline and one dig away from breaking the Lady Blues’ all-time dig record.
In short, it was a dismal performance. It’s unlikely to happen a second time. Washburn is falling apart at the edges and has been slowly collapsing since Monica Meisner went down in early fall practice and was eventually redshirted. The team has been hit by a rash of injuries and has looked, at times, very bad this season.
There may also be some tension between Tessa Jones, the team’s best offensive threat, and head coach Chris Herron. Jones appeared frustrated during a huddle during the middle of one of the MIAA matches and walked away. She is also nursing an injury and hasn’t fully played to her capabilities this season.
It’s a perfect upset in the making. I think West Fla. will provide a strong match – similar to what underdog Lock Haven did to favorite C.S-LA in the Elite Eight last season – but they just don’t have the team defense to keep up with the Lady Blues for five sets.
Lock Haven could rely on terrific blocking and the unbelievable play of Yizhi Li, but West Florida doesn’t have the same lineup or star. By the way- West Florida does have a terrific player blog about traveling to Missouri from Pensacola. It’s written somewhat like an instant message, but it’s at least interesting to read: http://goargos.cstv.com/sports/w-volley/spec-rel/110706aab.html.
Anyway, Naiara Fernandes is the Argonauts’ best player, earning All-Region second team honors and averaging 4.64 kills/game. Still, she is hitting .221 – not a strong average for your best player. WFU doesn’t have a single hitter that hits over .260, a big problem against the Washburn defense that has had a close match against Truman this season. Overall, I believe the offenses and blocking are about the same, though a slight edge could go to the Argonauts in the blocking department.
Still, Washburn has the much, much better libero and shouldn’t serve or receive as poorly as they did. If they do – and Truman took advantage of that in the MIAA Tourney – expect West Florida to pull the upset, but Washburn, led by their team defense and overall experience in big games and big matches wins in five.
No. 4 North Alabama vs. No. 5 Pittsburg State
As Tyler Madsen likes to say, “Flip a coin.” Two years ago, this match has produced the second-closest match I have ever witnessed – the first was the Lock Haven- C.S.-L.A. match mentioned above. This year will yield more of the same.
Sammie Williams, the MIAA reigning Freshman of the Year is sidelined with an undisclosed injury, but according to one MIAA head coach’s report early this week, is likely to play. If she plays, Pitt’s offense improves tremendously.
UNA could use a spy or shadow technique against either Williams or Pitt’s best blocker, Linda Igbinigie, but it’s unlikely to stop Pitt’s front line. Pamela Cartegana is likely the conference’s second-best all-around player behind the Bulldogs’ Sarah Shearman and could put up a huge match.
UNA doesn’t block very well and is led by S Laura Bellinger, the South Central Regional Player of the Year. Next to the Bulldogs, UNA has the best offense and one of the best team defenses, but their front line isn’t as athletic as the Gorillas. If Williams plays, Pitt’s the winner in five. If she doesn’t, UNA will earn the offensive advantage, close the blocking advantage and will take it in five.
No. 1 Truman State vs. No. 8 Albany State Truman 3-0
This is a match that’s similar to a No. 1 playing a No. 16 in the NCAA Tournament. Except this time, it’s remiscient of the mid-90s matchup between powerhouse UCLA (26-2) and Florida International (11-18). Albany State is the only team in the tournament with a losing record. They should receive plenty of congratulations for earning another NCAA Tournament bid in what was supposed to be a down year for them, but they rebounded from a subpar regular season and won the conference tourney.
Albany State does block very well, but that strength is negated against Truman, one of the best blocking teams in the country. MH Dana Hanselmann, a starter at the beginning of the season, will likely see plenty of time. Allie Cherven (MIAA-best 1.46 blocks/game) and Lisa Weber have taken over the middle spots, but Hanselmann is still plenty capable.
“We have three middles that we can move in and out,” sophomore outside hitter Eli Medina said.
Hanselmann, who hit a solid .280 and averaged just under a block a game (0.99) could enjoy a fine performance against ASU.
It’s likely head coach Jason Skoch will rest many of his key players for most of the match, including OH and MIAA regular season MVP Sarah Shearman. Overall, several players – include solid backup L Erin Leavitt and S/DS Amanda Holliday – could also see time in a three-game sweep at Pershing Arena.
posted by Tyler Madsen at Thursday, November 09, 2006
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